Thunderboltscould still have a sequel in the future even though theMarvel Cinematic Universe’s latest movie’s box office performance is disappointing due to some recent updates. I did not expect to likeThunderboltsas much as I did. The movie put together players from all over the franchise, andThunderbolts*’s star-studded casthad great chemistry, which helped the movie become the MCU team film that I had long wanted to see during the Multiverse Saga.Thunderbolts*does a phenomenal job of introducing a new team to the franchise, making the audience care for more obscure characters.
Sadly, while the response toThunderboltshas been positive from critics and the audience alike, that has not translated into a healthy box office. According to the specialized box office tracking website,Box Office Mojo,Thunderbolts’s global theatrical run currently stands at $371.1 million. While I believeThunderboltsdeserves to be considered one of theMCU’s best movies, its box-office performance puts it near the bottom of the franchise. However, I still believe that anMCUThunderboltssequelcould happen despite its negative box office after contemplating a few key factors.
Thunderbolts*’s Box Office Run Is Projected To End Short Of $400 Million
The MCU Movie Was Not A Massive Hit For The Franchise
Before getting into why aThunderboltssequel might still be possible, it is important to fully understand whatThunderbolts’s box office means.The film is currently the fourth lowest-grossing movie in the MCU. At $371.1 million,Thunderboltshas passedThe Marvels' $199.7 million,The Incredible Hulk’s $265.6, andCaptain America: The First Avenger’s $370.6 million box office totals. However, the MCU movie is not projected to climb much higher on the franchise’s box office leaderboard, asThunderboltsis already running out of steam. Hit movies likeMission: Impossible - The Final Reckoningand the live-actionLilo & Stitchpresent fierce competition.
The MCU movie should end belowCaptain America: Brave New Worlddespite generating more positive chatter than the MCU’s first 2025 movie, which is surprising.
WhileThunderboltsshould still add a few more millions to its box office run, the movie will likely fall short of reaching the last milestone it could, the $400 million mark. Those calculations come from Twitter, where box office analystLuiz Fernandorevealed thatThunderboltsis projected to end its global run in the $380M-390M range. Based on that projection,Thunderbolts*could still surpassBlack Widow’s $379.8 million total, but the MCU movie should end belowCaptain America: Brave New Worlddespite generating more positive chatter than the MCU’s first 2025 movie, which is surprising.
Thunderbolts* Is Circling Its Breakeven Point At The Box Office
Marvel Studios Can Still Find A Positive Point In The Movie’s Financial Performance
WhileThunderboltsis not going to be considered a box office hit with what it is projected to end its global run with, I believe Marvel Studios could still take some positives from the film’s performance. Based on the latest MCU movie’s projected finish in the $380M-390M range,Thunderboltscould even turn a small profit.Thunderbolts*had a reported budget of $180 million, which is not as high a price tag as other superhero movies have had in the past, though it is not exactly small either. Still, that gives the film some wiggle room.
In Hollywood, the rule of thumb when looking for a film’s breakeven point is to multiply its budget, landing somewhere in the range of 2x-2.5x its budget. Based on that,Thunderbolts*’s breakeven point lies in the $360-$450 million range. As such, with its current final projections, if the film’s breakeven point is on the lower side of the range,Thunderbolts*could end its box office run with no losses for Marvel. With toy sales, digital, home entertainment, and more,Thunderbolts*could make back its marketing and production costs and lead to a small profit for the studio.
The New Avengers Name Change Hints At A Big MCU Future For The Team
Marvel Studios Has Plans For The Thunderbolts Beyond Their Debut
Thunderbolts*’s box office being near its breakeven point and likely able to recoup costs and turn a small profit with ancillary revenues is a good sign that Marvel could take a chance on a sequel. However, the most important aspect of the team that makes me believe a sequel could be in the works comes from a story standpoint.Thunderbolts*’s endingbrought along a huge status change for the team. After they saved New York City and the whole world saw it,Valentina Allegra de Fontaine introduced the team as the MCU’s New Avengers.
I think they earned it, as the film was about these characters bonding and becoming a family while using one another to work through personal trauma and truly become heroes. The ideal version of that is through the Thunderbolts becoming the biggest superhero team in-universe, beloved by everyone. Then cameThunderbolts*’s post-credits scene, which had a time jump of over a year to show the characters being more comfortable in their new role andoperating out of the MCU’s original Avengers Tower, which is now owned by Val, who is under their thumb.
2012
2015
2018
2019
2026
Avengers: Secret Wars
2027
The New Avengers are confirmed to play a key role inAvengers: DoomsdayandAvengers: Secret Wars. WhileThunderboltsmight have been a box office disappointment, the fact that the team will be focused on by the MCU’s biggest releases ever is exciting for the chances of aThunderboltssequel to happen. Through the Avengers movies, which have all grossed over $1 billion worldwide, the New Avengers could get a meaningful popularity boost, leading to more fans tuning in for a possible sequel than the number of viewers that showed up forThunderbolts*. Marvel has big plans for the team.
MCU Franchises Have Seen Great Box Office Bumps With Sequels
Thunderbolts* 2 Can Build On The Foundation The MCU Has Laid Out
Most sequels for characters in the MCU have managed to outgross the total box office of the first film in the franchise. That can happen in more contained amounts, likeIron Man 2making $37 million more than Robert Downey Jr.’s firstIron Manmovie, or have a larger difference, such asChris Evans’Captain America: The Winter Soldierstanding $344 million aboveCaptain America: The First Avenger. In Evans' case, his sequel was helped by Steve Rogers' prominent role in the MCU’s first crossover film, 2012’sThe Avengers.
I’m fully convinced thatThunderboltscould follow a similar path to Captain America. The team was made up of obscure characters, andMarvel chose not to market the film with the New Avengers title until after it was out. As such, I’m not completely surprised by its box office run. However, with a sequel that banks on the characters' renewed popularity after the upcoming Avengers movies and confidently calls the team the New Avengers from the start, theThunderboltsfranchise could be turned around. Based on those factors, I think Marvel will give aThunderbolts*sequel a chance.
